Corruption disables nations.
H5N1 Update: “130,674,361 poultry— a big reason why eggs are hard to find and expensive” 🆓
https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/h5n1-update-january-7
Happily COVID left us with a much improved public health system. (Oh, wait, that’s on Earth-2)
“H5N1 is something to watch, but don’t let it take up too much headspace yet”
HMPV in China: RSV-like virus identified 2001 causing more pneumonia.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/07/health/hmpv-virus-china.html
The article doesn’t say why the virus is spreading more now. Often we don’t know. Probably common here but we don’t test for it. Nobody trusts China however.
US hits demographic cliff expected since Great Recession
https://hechingerreport.org/the-impact-of-this-is-economic-decline/
College tuition falling, many closing, international students down, fewer seek college.
“The proportion of high school graduates who are Hispanic, nationwide, is expected to rise from 26 percent to 36 percent by 2041”
Editing Contant/List relationship broken in macOS Sequoia
https://apple.stackexchange.com/questions/477085/contacts-app-misbehaving-in-sequoia-on-m1-imac
I have the same problem except I can’t change any Contact List relationships. I’m going to try the latest macOS (secret) update and if that doesn’t work it sounds like we need to rebuild the Contacts database from iCloud. (May be related to my migration from Monterey)
Nature open access: Differences in misinformation sharing leads to politically asymmetric sanctions
Link. Oct 2024. Same thing happened with IRS years ago. There were more audits of conservatives because they lied more — but that was politically intolerable. So GOP clobbered the IRS.
What Enron and the .com boom tells us about OpenAI
Link. One of the best critiques I’ve read. I appreciated the view of PE culture; I am sure that has not changed.
Phishing-assault coordination via Telegram targeting U-Haul customers.
Link. Also – “cryptocurrency hackers had partnered with teams of home invaders, who would break into known crypto-owners’ homes, beat and threaten them, and then retrieve the victim’s crypto wallet, allowing their accounts to be drained of funds”
Kevin Drum makes the case for America’s ability to build despite our regulatory environment.
Pinboard (jgordon) https://jabberwocking.com/yeah-america-can-still-build-stuff/
I am sure he is wrong about government software. Still, it is a good counterpoint to Noah et al.
“America’s political elite appeased a bully, the American people endorsed that strategy, and now America’s economic elite is falling all over itself to appease the bully some more.”
Jan 6 is the day the music died.
from Pinboard (jgordon) https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/my-extremely-brief-take-on-january
via IFTTT
“change rage is real, and trying to argue people out of it rarely succeeds. Which is why fighting negative externalities should, where possible, leave the way people live more or less untouched.”
This is so familiar to anyone who has worked on pedestrian safety, bicycle paths and the like. It is, sadly, very true about climate change mitigation.
A loved one with a cognitive disability reacts to any new thing with NO. (It can take him 1-2 days to process, when left alone he may quietly change his mind.) I have learned that many of his traits are far more common that I once thought.
from Pinboard (jgordon) https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/lessons-from-new-yorks-congestion
via IFTTT
“AI systems emit between 130 and 1500 times less CO2e per page of text generated compared to human writers, while AI illustration systems emit between 310 and 2900 times less CO2e per image than their human counterparts”
AI energy use is not a good hill to die on.
from Pinboard (jgordon) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-54271-x#ref-CR21
via IFTTT
“Scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) think the world’s reflective cloud cover has shrunk in the past two decades by a small but significant amount” 🆓
Jamison Foser on the Obsequiousness of The Washington Post Spiking Ann Telnaes’s Cartoon
https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/01/05/fozer-wapo-obsequiousness
Link to: https://www.findinggravity.net/p/no-jeff-bezos-is-not-obeying-in-advance
“In 2023, China burned more coal than the rest of the world combined — 56 percent”
https://toosimple.substack.com/p/china-peak-coal
In many ways, coal is the Party’s biggest, dirtiest secret. Long read.
Migrating my microblog publishing from Pinboard to Raindrop.io
https://tech.kateva.org/2025/01/migrating-my-microblog-publishing-from.html?m=1
Technical fixes, tips and findings — all based on my personal experience. Mostly macOS and iOS.
“starting with a spec created through collaboration with o1, then saving that as a SPEC.md Markdown file and adding that to Cursor’s context”
https://bit.ly/3W5xHmS
Zohaib Rauf describes a pattern I’ve seen quite a few examples of now: engineers who moved into management but now find themselves able to ship working code again (at least …
WaPo “rejected a cartoon depicting The Post’s owner, Jeff Bezos, genuflecting toward a statue of President-elect Donald J. Trump”
Link. Ann Telnaes resigned. WaPo is dead under Bezos. Cancel your subscription renewal.
“If we replaced every atom in the universe with a universe the size of ours, it would still be orders of magnitude away from making the monkey typing likely to succeed”
Link. Infinite monkeys can type anything. But infinity is a big number. In some models of the multiverse however …
(The AI comment is obviously dumb. Also this is not a serious paper.)
NEJM report of A(H5N1) teen course: ECMO needed but antivirals worked. 🆓
Link. Now we can truly say COVID isn’t worse than (some) influenza. Note renal injury is not unique to COVID. Case study is short and easy to read.
“OpenRSS is a free service that builds open RSS feeds for various sites”
Link. Nonprofit. RSS is back.
On DOGE and government efficiency: bad software, bad regulations, underfunded commitments and more
Link. There are ways to dramatically improve government efficiency. They will cause many to lose good jobs that they cannot replace and they may increase government spending while reducing revenue that flows to politicians.
Eve of Destruction – a visit to Taiwan
Link. All the world’s powers will soon be ruled by moronic and deluded villains. Noah even starts to turn on his payors, though he doesn’t use Musk’s name.
Modern schizophrenia management: intensive intervention helps but expense limits benefit.
Link. At 10y time-limited benefit not sustained. We desperately need to understand the pathophysiology and we need something like an AI guardian.
“movement promotes “targeted attacks, mass killings and criminal activity” and has “historically encouraged members to engage in self-harm and animal abuse”
Link. “No Lives Matter is an offshoot of the broader “accelerationist” movement, which seeks to accelerate radical social change through sabotage and violence”
LLMs 2024: “LLM prices crashed, thanks to competition and increased efficiency”
Link. Energy costs will fall quickly. This is essential reading for anyone interested in humans.
“The average household with at least one family member on a GLP-1 is spending about 6 percent less on groceries each month within six months of adoption”
Link. GLP-1 economics. We don’t yet know how sustained the appetite effects will be however.
Issues with backing up Contacts Notes and Lists in Sequoia.
Link. It seems quite a mess. Backup is getting harder to do, allegedly iCloud contacts restore omits lists and notes.
“owners of ultrawide 5K2K monitors is to avoid buying M4 Macs until the problem is fixed”
Link. Weird bug
“Children with cystic fibrosis are no longer automatically eligible for the Make-A-Wish Foundation because a new drug works so well that these kids are now expected to have an essentially normal lifespan.”
Link. See also: HIV summer camp closed due to lack of HIV+ kids.
“Google has an offer that is basically a franchise and you have ability to get Google searches out but you also have to get Google ads”
Link. Kagi CEO has ideas on how to manage the Google tire fire. (Via Tsai)
Why China’s productivity slowed down 2022 (2022)
Link. Noah only mentions corruption at the start and in the context of research fraud. I suspect that is a much bigger factor than he admits.
America has also become very corrupt.
Tesla share price is now a measure of America’s corruption.
Link. Big bet that Musk will take power.
China’s coming depression: Xi is as stupid as Trump.
Link. Americans at least consciously chose to be ruled by idiots.
Fentanyl variants post China: “If the rabbits survive beyond 90 seconds, the drug is deemed too weak to be sold to Americans”
Link. China is finally restricting raw ingredients to Mexico. So cartels are developing new variant opioids tested on animals and humans.
We think at 10bps and “we sift about one bit out of every 100 million we receive”
Link. Very low power. Our AIs use rather more
Why so much “autism”? Start with “broadening parameters of the spectrum”
Link. Mild kudos for at least hinting at the truth that the DSM definition of “autism” is an impenetrable roadblock to research and understanding.
President Musk’s first win: preserving Tesla factories in China.
Link. “The word for this is oligarchy”
Explaining ARC (Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus) evaluation of AIs.
Link. I don’t believe the “average human” score.
“the fact that Democratic presidents pushed trade policies that destroyed millions of good paying jobs for non-college educated workers is not really in dispute.”
Link. I would like an example of a 1990s economics pundit warning about who would be hurt by free trade.
Revolutions in human affairs: generally disastrous. 🆓
Link. Lots of analysis, examples and references. The goal of a sober democracy is to understand and mitigate the pressures that produce revolution.
I like the comment about growing food.
“Trump could have carried on with his aura of invincibility and uncrossable authority through the beginning of his term if Musk wasn’t such a goddamn idiot.”
Link. Jedeed shines in this analysis of President Musk’s facepalm to old man Trump.
Cloud Platforms described.
Link. Marketing for Nitric but I appreciated the overview. I haven’t seen this in one place before.
BYTE magazine would have done this well.
AI progress: more data vs more thinking
Link. “bottlenecks for impact are the pace of product development and the rate of adoption, not AI capabilities.”
A thoughtful overview.
UK legislation and blogs: “The blog will continue to exist. However the comment threads may be closed for good after March 14th”
Link. Discussions will have to occur on a regulated platform.
Gruber on why Bezos should sell WaPo: “… Jeff Bezos would be portrayed by the actor who played the cowardly lawyer snatched on the can by the T-Rex in Jurassic Park”
Link. WaPo is dead unless Bezos leaves it.
OpenAI o3: “at least one OpenAI programmer could still beat the system”
Link. Coders don’t need to worry, uber is still hiring.
(1. Development is much more than coding, but a lot people like to code. 2. Ask not for who the bell tolls.)
The Oligarchs: “… include Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Peter Thiel, David Sacks, Charles Koch, Jeff Yass, Ken Griffin, and Rupert Murdoch.”
Link. The stupid is strong.
“slowing solid tumor growth was considered enough of a reason to be optimistic, and it really wasn’t”
Link. Die they must.
“All intuition about AI capabilities will need to get updated for o3”
Link.